The NDA’s massive 2025 Bihar win was shaped not just by its own strength but by opposition fragmentation—AIMIM, BSP and Jan Suraaj cut deep into Mahagathbandhan votes, helping NDA dominate 202 seats.

The 2025 Bihar Assembly election, once expected to mirror the tight contest of 2020, instead turned into a landslide for the NDA, which claimed 202 of 243 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan collapsed to just 35. The shift wasn’t driven solely by pro-incumbency it was the fragmentation of the opposition vote that transformed the electoral landscape.

Unlike 2020’s near-bipolar contest, this election evolved into a three-way fight across many regions. The entry of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, AIMIM, and Mayawati’s BSP disrupted traditional voter blocs and splintered the Mahagathbandhan’s support base.

Jan Suraaj, contesting its first Assembly election, secured 3.4% votes and altered outcomes in 33 seats. The BSP, which fielded candidates in 181 constituencies, won only one but significantly divided the Dalit vote in at least 20 seats, hurting the RJD-led bloc. In Seemanchal, AIMIM took five seats, eroding what was once a solid RJD bastion.

Overall, these three parties influenced 63 seats, of which the NDA captured 44 a margin that proved decisive. Even though the BJP and JD(U) only modestly increased their vote shares, the opposition’s fragmentation made the ruling alliance’s route to victory far easier.

Analysis: The Bihar verdict signals that opposition unity is no longer a cliché but a strategic necessity. Smaller parties are no longer fringe players they now shape outcomes in dozens of seats. Unless the Mahagathbandhan restructures its coalition strategy and voter outreach, it risks facing the same structural disadvantage in the next electoral cycle.